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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister emerged as the exclusive EU chief to back the Republican candidate. This alignment was expected, considering the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious notions like population replacement concept and the restrictions against media freedom. Commentators observe that Mr Orbán practically pioneered the Make America Great Again campaign, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors Before the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with key votes in Hungary merely half a year off, the American leader returned some political favors. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term presiding over a country he calls an illiberal state, his ruling party lags in the polls. A visit to Washington produced beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured considerably more valuable electoral advantages.

Waivers and Fiscal Safeguards

Even though before instructing European states on the imperative to eliminate all resource supplies from Russia, and threatening penalties against states still to buy Russian oil, the US president agreed to grant a unique waiver for Hungary – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. Per the Hungarian leader, the US government also promised to extend a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any future difficulties, particularly since EU institutions persists in holding back substantial EU funds to Hungary due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this agreement are unclear. Yet the US president recently demonstrated his readiness to help out political friends when the US granted a a $20 billion loan to Javier Milei, Argentina's president. While the Hungarian PM failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Oval Office meeting nonetheless was a productive session.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

In the corridors of the EU, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the international consequences of the forthcoming polls, prior to which the opposition candidate, the rival candidate, enjoys a solid advantage in opinion data. European leaders know not to expect steady principles from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the US president’s attempts to undermine the European Union. Yet Mr Orbán’s exemption – secured through an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens European goals to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled substantial funds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the threat of its veto to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• As Europe strives to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of promising a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on internal matters, while stressing the importance for the country to finally behave as a positive member state. Following persistent provocations, Brussels can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, such as the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a humiliating embarrassment for the European Union. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding Ukrainian matters could harm its security prospects.